Will Tegbar's call be a success?
The arrest of almost all important CUD leaders has created a huge leadership void in the peaceful struggle against EPRDF's totalitarianism. As events have worked out, the Ethiopian Diaspora in the west has, collectively, stepped up to fill this vacuum. Ethiopians generally appreciate the role of their fellow country men abroad. Although a relentless smear campaign had been waged by the Likes of The Reporter against the Diaspora, it was largely ignored. We, at home, still think that our brothers and sisters in the west have as equal a right as ourselves. In these days when news travel faster and gets a way to be published easier, we don't believe in the myth that the Diaspora is distant to the reality here. If anyone is out of touch with wishes and aspirations of most Ethiopians, it is the members and supporters of the EPRDF who are living amidst us.
Tegbar's call for civil disobedience, I believe, demonstrates that the Diaspora is taking its leadership role seriously. So will the call be successful? The success can only be measured in terms of its stated goal. As clearly put in the flyers being circulated in Addis, the goal of the civil disobedience is ensuring the release of political prisoners. So to rephrase the question asked...will the call achieve the release of political prisoners?
I think if the call is properly executed, it will cause a major earth quake on the country's political landscape. A five days labor strike, withdrawal of resources from state banks etc will surely have other collateral effects nationally and internationally. EPRDF members and supporters are told that the struggle is reversed. A successful implementation of civil disobedience will force them to question such statements and doubt the government's capacity to ride the storm out. The same questions are going to be raised in the military. Civil servants who are working with the government because they think that it will last long will have second thoughts. Internationally, the legitimacy of the government will continue being questioned. Once they realize that the government is unable to control the people, vacillating donors will know which side not to support.
If Tegbar's call for civil disobedience is to be effectively executed, the organizers have to learn lessons from the near past. I know most Ethiopians in the Diaspora feel that the October civil disobedience called and led by Kinijit was a success. In terms of mass support and donor reaction, it was. Yet it didn't bring about the goal of the call - forcing the gov't accept CUD's eight preconditions. The kinijit call wasn't properly executed. The stay at home strike began before the date it was supposed to start. The boycott of goods and services hurt only very few companies as the crack down began before the names of many companies were publicized. A lot of people continue watching and listening to the state media despite the call to boycott.
So what went wrong? First, Kinijit miscalculated the destructive capacity of EPRDF. Kinijit leaders announced that they might call for civil disobedience way before october. The methods of disobedience were published on the free press. Mean while, EPRDF was making a thorough preparation on how to destroy the plan. Kinijit set the 14th of November as a date of the strike for two reasons. It didn't want to destabilize the holy month of Ramadan and it wanted workers to collect their salary before the strike. EPRDF came with a plan to obliterate both reasons by bringing the date forward. It lit a street violence. Members of the public were sucked into the violence unknowingly. People were forced to stay at home two weeks before the stated time. Most didn't receive their salary and were unable to sustain the lives of themselves and their families. So they returned back to work when the violence stopped. Young men and women who were committed to go on with the strike, despite the difficulties, were forced to go outside when door-to-door arrests began. By the time it started, Kinijit 's call had lost all its surprise element and the EPRDF was prepared to destroy it.
Second, in practice, most Ethiopians were unfamiliar with conducting civil disobedience. Two days after the boycott of state media was announced, for example, I met a lot of pro-kinijit people listening to Ethiopian Radio. When I asked them why they weren't heeding the call, some answered that they didn't think it was serious. Others said they were either listening to sports or music.
Tegbar's call is afflicted with the same problems and more. Many people aren't aware of the call. It lacked the surprise element. It was better if Tegbar had worked with different groups, trade unions, students etc, wrap up the organizational aspect and made the call through the mass media only days before the start. The clandestine organization would also have helped people learn the reasons for conducting civil disobedience.
I am convinced that Tegbar's call will be acted upon by some people. A prepared EPRDF will make its move. Violence may erupt here and there. Can we call that a success?