Fikru of Enset.blogspot.com has an article about the future of Kinijit. I can't link it because of the incredibly slow internet connection today here in Addis. You can find it on http://enset.blogspot.com/2007/10/boycott-of-parliament-and-future-of.html.
I agree with Fikru that the South will be the battle ground state in a lot of future elections. This is a region where integrationists have more support than unitarists and disintegrationists. This means that many people have unwavering commitment to both Ethiopian unity and self-administration.
I think if Kinijit works hard in the region, it can come out top. I have observed the last election very closely. Kinijit did get a fair number of seats in the South without a lot of hard work and organization. Kinijit should aspire to be a 50+1 party. In the last election using a charitable estimation (with the rigged constituencies shared between UEDF and Kinijit based on claim and prima facie evidence), Kinijit would have gotten 259 seats. That is 16 seats short of the majority needed to form a government. It could, of course, have formed a coalition government with UEDF. Kinijit can become a 50+1 party if it has an appeal to all Ethiopians beyond the cities, the Amhara region and some parts of the South. To make inroads to those constituencies, Kinijit should show that it is inclusive of the many in its appearance and policies.
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