Friday, March 16, 2007

Why the Mediation is failing

I published the information below for the sake of accountability. I have no aim to derail the talks or defame the mediators. I will remove any post which engages in personal attacks of the mediators who are among the most respected citizens of Ethiopia and the world.

While the mediation efforts by Professor Ephrem Isaac, Haile Gebresilassie and Ambassador Bekele to get CUD leaders released from jail is yet officially over, there are signs that it is going nowhere. Last week the mediators presented a document for signature by the CUD leaders. It reads:

We apologize for Ethiopians, the government and the mediators for the acts, which were outside of the constitution, committed by some of our members and supporters following elections 2005.

The six people who were representing the jailed leaders all declined to sign it.

Whether the wording of this particular document is too general to allow the jailed leaders to sign it and get out of prison without tarnishing their credibility and moral authority is debatable. What was more important, however, was how the mediators acted afterwards. There was a feeling amongst them that the jailed leaders were stubborn while Meles was willing to bend. The fact that the mediators felt the leaders who were unwilling to impute crime on some members and supporters to leave jail were stubborn showed how the whole mediation process was quite flawed. What would they have said about Nelson Mandela who asked for the unconditional release of himself and fellow political prisoners as precondition for any serious talks with the white minority rulers in South Africa? This blogger was informed that professor Mesfin ruled himself out of the talks saying the whole process was an insult to "shimgilena institution."

I am sure that the mediators were engaged in their efforts with good faith. So what were the problems with the process?

  1. The mediators had no defined role. Mediators usually act as bridges between the parties by defining issues and guiding the discussions. The traditional Shimgelina in Ethiopia even goes beyond that. Shimageles study the interest of the parties and sometimes propose their solutions. Here the mediators were acting as messengers of Meles Zenawi.
  2. They hadn't really understood the complex issues. In one instance, Meles told the mediators that the CUD had called for national unity government and that was unconstitutional. Utterly convinced by him, they tried to pass the message to the leaders. The same confusion was reflected in issues relating to AFD and hate speech. It would have been better if these gentlemen were assisted by professionals (lawyers, political scientists etc)
  3. The mediation has no grander objective except getting the prisoners released. It made the mediators assume that the jailed politicians are in weaker position and, therefore, need to accept Meles's terms to get out of prison. If grader objectives like national reconciliation had been set, the assumption would have been different
  4. The jailed politicians weren't allowed to spend time together discussing the issue. They were called from their respective cells whenever the mediators appear and asked to make decisions on the spot with the presence of the mediators. It hampered the leaders from having common positions.
  5. Mediations generally involve joint sessions where the opposing parties meet to hammer out an agenda and define issues. This particular mediation appeared to be more like a shuttle diplomacy.
I still wish the mediation will end up with success. It is only when there is change in the course that success can happen.


Unknown said...

hi EZ,txs for updating
I'm sorry for these things. But I'm proud of them.I wish them to lead the country with out any bloodshade the day canmes soon as Prof. Mesfen says these week

Random Thoughts said...

they're doomed to fail, Meles has very little to lose, he's in good terms with the powers, he proven to be loyal to the west, which is really all they care about. In whose interest is it to challenge the current status quo. Not the EU, not the US, not the Chinese. It's even a potential leverage point that his trade (or "development") partners could use to their favor.

The whole process will remain deadlocked.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

"professor Mesfin ruled himself out of the talks saying the whole process was an insult to "shimgilena institution.""

Right on point!!!!! It has been that way from the beggining and I don't know why nobody said anything about it till now.

Unknown said...

Dear Ez,

I appreciate that you are trying to be polite to the “Shemagelis” by calling them as mediators. To begin with, Shemagelis in Ethiopia or anywhere else takes part knowing very well, that they themselves have to contribute to the reconciliation. On this one, I have the impression, that these two “melektegnoch” are not acting as Shemagelis, but rather as “gudaye Aseftsamis” if not more.

Another interesting thing is, this is a hostage issue, not a negotiation between two independent entities. Even if the opposition leaders signed the agreement by such intimidation, it will be only Melese who will use it against them, not the Ethiopian people, or the opposition.

Even now, as a sum game player, Melese is using the “Shemaglis” to deceive the foreigner, as if he was trying to resolve the issues through mediation (which I believe, he is not).

In summary, based on Melese’s past behaviors, be it, removing their immunity by deception, or the many lies and tricks he has used before, He is not, or will ever be interested, in the resolution of the problem. What he wants all along was, to use their signature against themselves. Only indecisive person, can be used by such pathological liar.

I feel very sad and ashamed to these “Telalakiwoch” , get involved and being used by this evil person.

Please, don’t read what is not there!!!!.

Unknown said...

Why do you contradict yourself listen to your heart. They were not mediators they were messengers as you stated. They were not in any shape or form mediators. Mediators set the agenda and approach both side to find a solution to the dispute. These were picked individuals by Meles to
handle his communication with the leaders. Professor Epheram Issac has been a friend and confidant of Melese for years, I have seen pictures of him Melese and Issais at a cocktail event after the vote for independence. As to Haile Gebreselasse he is being used since he is an Ethiopian icon and hero, what does he know about politics let's be serious... As to the Ambassador??? -and Professor Epherm to tell me that they did not know what a call for national unity beyond the ridiculous. The words spell out the meaning it is not such an intricate concept, so give us a break, they knew very well what it means if not the titles they carry are not worth a cra.. they were and are lackeys (.) and were not delivering what was wanted from them. For you to excuse them is even more ridiculous. Sorry but I am disappointed in you assessment.

Why should these people apologize for something they have not done. One only apologizes for grievances committed they have not done anything wrong so what are they required to apologize for. If any one needs to apologize it is Meles and his cohorts for not respecting the votes, and for all the mayhem and atrocities committed. Sorry Zagol you have missed the point on this one.

Unknown said...

This was a process expected to fail from the get go. There is no such thing called mediation between two parties that are miles apart. There need to be a common understanding to start mediation and work on those common understanding, then expand them to include other elements along the way. For Meles this is not the first time to change his mind in the middle of a deal along the way. He did the same thing to an agreement he willingly entered into with Shabia. Believe it or not I have always had qualms with the whole process to begin with.

Even Meles' own judges gave him the truth and he was unable to handle the fact, they told him 8-2 he used excessive force when he ordered his AGAZI military force to mow down the inoccent protesters. We are talking about young Ethiopians who showed hungr for Democracy. I mean it comes down to this naked truth, he wants them to accept responsibilities for his AGAZI Force crimes. How is it possible for CUDP leaders to accept a responsibility for hundreds of deaths and tenth of thousands held in prison without comminication. I am at loss of words and angry with the mediators as to how it would be possible for them to negotiate. Like I said above Meles and his TPLF organization are criminals and should be brought to court and negotiate their term in jail.

These are people who came to power by force, and immediatelly established an industrial power economic suction apparatuse, in which no one said a word on. They created a system in which all incomes the country generates to come directly into the coffers of TPLF, no Ethiopian said anything at the time. Asking them to step down is like telling them to return all the billions of dollars stolen from Ethiopia. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE, to the extent of that IT IS INCONCEIVABLE!

Have you ever seen a thief after 15-years of time returning the money he stole to the owner? NO!!! He will assume the money as his own belonging after he had it for few days, he spends it like his own. TPLF created over 100-Industrial suction standard and attached it to every sector nibble so they can do what they came to power for. Many of you do not believe this but the country will go broke the minute the whole TPLF deal over. Do you know that Ethiopia is the highest economic assistance receiver, yet she still suffers from hard currency shortages? where is the $3,000,000,000/yr going? In foreign banks for personal safety nets as well as expanding the organization's companies capacity.

The West understands exactly what Meles' weakness is and they are exploiting his weakness. Later when they realize Real-Ethiopians are winning, they will hold him with all the evidence they are gathering against him. Theyknow the details to the penny and they know where he stashing the money. But as long as he does what they want him to do they do not wish to open the can of worms. They let the sleeping giant (Real-Ethiopians) lie undisturbed.

I like the way EZ drew parallel between CUDP leaders/Mandella and Aparthied/TPLF. Mandella asked the South African Aparthied system to recognized and release all political prisoners as a pre-condition to talk and the South African Aparthied system said no at first, but after a while they realized the wind was blowing against their direction. So, they agreed to release all political prisoners. Then the talks began, and election was held and he won. A jailed man after 27 years was freed and became a leader of a country that imprisoned him, and that ENDED APARTHIED! All those billionaires were left untouched and allowed to keep their wealth they made on the backs of the Real-South Africans. I have a feeling the same will end here, but Ethiopians will make sure that TPLF will leave all her assets in Ethiopia. She may get away with the billions stashed in foreighn banks. But at the end TPLF members will fight amongst each other when they split their accumulated stolen wealth. You will see Somalian style war lords in Tigrea.

I am glad the CUDP leaders did not sighn the stupid humuliating deal that will exonerate TPLF and load all the responsibilities on the shoulders of the CUDP leadership. I am very disappointed at the mediators to think that the offer of taking responsibilities for all the killings and imprisoning of tenth of thousnds of people is unfair.

We all must realize that TPLF is not bondable. Do you all remember what happened to Tamrat Lyne? After he apologized on public his guilt was confirmed and sent to jail for life. He is planning to do the same to our elected leaders once they sign the documment Meles crafted they will be hungged in Piassa square or better yet Abyot Addebabay square for many to watch from the stadium.

EL SENSEI said...


Unknown said...

if there are guys who really believe that Meles begin this messengers process out of good faith, there are problems like someone who doesn't know how to breath. Meles is preparing a second self death penality to the jailed leaders. Since he has not get anything through his kangaroo court, he is trying his chance to get their signature and use it as an evidence.

EZ, while you were good informing things, regarding this matter and your fast prais to Yamamooto and so on is trashing the quality of your blog.

If you have a link to jailed leaders, please pass the message that Meles is preparing them to slaughter them. This time, using their own hands.

Regarding what you called "mediators" and what I call them "messengers of evil" are not using their own brain. They go to see jailed leaders filled their brain with the brain of that evil person.

The role of a mediator is to listen each side's problems and then find out a common ground through compromise from each side. Anything different from that is not a mediator.

Its is now about two years since the election and all the troubles following that. But it is really sad that there are still people who are under constant illusion if meles has anything for good.

Unknown said...

Thanks Zagol as usual !!

The "mediation" effort by the distinguished personalities doesn't seem to succeed because the Tplf regime is once again playing dirty games using the personalities. I don't call it "mediation" because it is not mediation but a trap to get the Tplf regime out of the mess it created in the first place. Knowingly or unknowigly the "mediators" are being used as messengers for the Monster who jailed the leaders just because they won the election. I agree with Professor Mesfin. This is an insult to the Ethiopian people. This kind of "mediation" will only prolong the suffering of the Ethiopian people and gives the regime a cover as if they were looking for an honest political dialog.

Ethio said...

Woyane wants them to make our leaders to ask apology's for the crimes they didn't made. The objective of woyane is to set a case for future. If the Kinijit Leaders agree and sign this deal, they will not stay out for long. Woyane is preparing to bring them back to jail turn by turn if they get release now. If they sign this deal, it will not end up by signing this deal. I am sure woyane will bring another case and ask them to do the same.

For Me, woyane is the worst dictator in the world

Hagos said...
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Hagos said...

Why are we always drawn to the field created by Melese. And the worst part is we expect a result from him. Melese starts this mediation to distract the Ethiopian people from the Somalia war and if the war goes to the wrong direction he want to make himself ready to have a control mechanism with Ethiopian people. If you remember once he confirmed the result of the war he gave them only one choice. He told them they need to sign the letter for them to secure their release from the prison. Unfortunately we are not learning, we always make our self’s available to be control by his remote control and measure our struggle by Melese blood pressure monitoring machine. When he accused opposition as a terrorist we automatically try to take it serious and in stead of denouncing his remark knowing that he is the terrorizer we start taking about those people labeled by Melese as a terrorist. Do not forget how many Tigriane high school student forced to join the struggle from their school without even seen their parent to say anything to them and killed by him during the struggle. The sniper targeted killing in Addis and many part of the country. Do you think he need a mediator or he has to wait for the professor or for Haile G. if he want a dialogue with the opposition to solve the country political crisis. He knows he has the key but currently his gun weight more than the peaceful transformation key. I am tired of this foolishness. We need to wake up and smell the coffee before we loose our nose. Please look what professor Mesfin did. Do you think he does not like negotiation to bring a solution to the people he love most? Do you think he want to stay in prison at his Age? However, look what he did. He knows them very well. I advise you to read his book “ Ye Keudat Keulkulet”. He described their distorted and evil complicated apartheid system. We need to stop jumping up and down when Melese act as a refry. We need to stand together and shut his ugly mouth to prevent him from lying around the world. By now we all should know that Melese does not have a plan for Ethiopian people from day 1. If he did he would have accepted the sea access when he was offer during negotiation in England. In addition even if we assume during that time EPLF was powerful and Melese does not have a power at that time but after he won the 2000 war he could have used that leverage to gain back Assab. Instead he jailed Sey the most prominent and anti Eritrea in prison and accept the Algiers agreement to give more land from Ethiopia to Eritrea. What more do you expect from Melese. Negotiations? Mediator?, Reconciliation conference?...... I know he always laugh when he hear all of this because I know this is a jock for him. When he was attending a meeting with lawyers he act as he knows more than the lawyers and start telling them how to do their work. When he attends a meeting with medical doctors he acts as a physician and telling them how they have to manage their patient illness. When he attends a meeting with investors and traders he acts as an economist and start telling them how to do their investments and trading. Sorry actually he is acting now as one of the world economist and reformist. But I do not now how Jeffery Sacs will think about this ? When he attend a meeting with the military he acts as a warrior and telling the soldiers how they can fight enemy but It looks like he forgot his past history as one of the worst solider. I met last year a good friend who works for international organization in Ethiopia after he returns back in US from Ethiopia. He told me that Melese has two faces. He shows his democratic face for international community and he shows his dictatorial face for his people. After I left from his office I thought about his remark and try to visualize the situation and I asked my self is this something to do with our culture. To speak the truth in some area we see our wife as second citizens in and as a house sitter our country. When we go out of our house we act as we are a very important person and we act to be visible or to be seen as icon for the neighborhoods but when we go home we act as a dictator and the only one who ruled the house(my way or no way). It reminds me a protestant preacher during his service once I heard him giving a very interesting example regarding this type of person. He said when one preacher was preaching his wife was attending the service and after the service she ran to her house and brought her bed and told him that beginning today we have to stay inside the church. She told him that she never see this part of him for the past years of marriage. She told him we need to spend the rest of our marriage here to live the life you told to those people. And then I said if you have culture you will probably trap to your culture but I said not Melese because I know he does not have neither culture nor personality. He is naturally a cold person. When he was asked by journalist why our people are coming to Addis Ababa to beg and he said so what let them come and beg. He did not even showed any sympathy and think those people son and daughter were died during the struggle and actually the majority were killed by him. If we love our people and our country we need to ignore the shuttle diplomacy and follow our hero leader action. Please think about the age of those heroes in prison. They are from 20s to 70s but they all have one similarity. Every one of them loves their people and their country. If we do, let stand together and hold their hand. When we continue the struggle we are holding their hand.

Unknown said...

"professor Mesfin ruled himself out of the talks saying the whole process was an insult to "shimgilena institution."

Thank you Prof. Mesefen!

You have recognized the issue here very clearly. It also shows us that you are not doing this for power. Then if one is committed for strangle completely, either being imprisoned or be killed shouldn’t be an issue for discussion. (That is what Melese did btw).

Melese has never, never negotiated in good faith. Never. He is negotiating only if he should take someone’s life or put him in prison forever. That is what, Siye or his loyal servant layine got. I don’t think negotiating on ones life is an issue of negotiation at all.
My highest respect to you Sir.

Unknown said...

Hi guys,

Every Body Listen Up! Ethiopia is calling Emama Ethiopia is Calling. Let us share this millennium one another. Let share our story- the story of our life-How Hard everything has been on all of us. Let us share our Story and write a story of ours –This is Our Millennium. The peoples’ Millennium. Ethiopian Millennium

Look how come we are not sharing our millennium? I saw this website called It is pretty much cool. It has every thing that takes any social web portal takes-it has a forum, it has a blog, where every body can choose its hero and heroine, it has information about Ethiopia, investment, it has over thousands of addresses of businesses. I have posted my millennium message- I said “I know you last millennium” –WOWOOWOWOWOOWOWOOWOW- Hoping that everything is going to be alright let us all Ethiopians share the coming millennium together-Hand In Hand.


Lets Pass the word and share our Millennium

Hagos said...
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Hagos said...
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Hagos said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hagos said...
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Hagos said...

Are you blind? What is millennium good for if our people and our country future is dark? It make me sick when I see irresponsible person like you always thinking about celebration and having a good time while the majority of our people are suffering. Our country has never been in a dark era like this since the beginning of human settlements in our country specially comparing where our world is currently. Knowing that our country was the first for everything and now the last and the poorest country with a dictatorial government and for you to talk about celebration of millennium with a current condition is sickening and shows the size of your brain. As a human being we all should think beyond our self and feel for other people. You are probably in America or in Europe counting your dollars or Euro and want to go to Ethiopia to exchange your money with Ethiopian Birr and celebrate and to have a good time. I don’t think you even read the above comment before you wrote you comment or if you did you try to distract us from commenting on the above issue. They all concern regarding our country direction and the arrogancy of the government character and the game they are playing in the name of democracy. I do not how to say this because I don't know your age but look how old Professor Mesfin is and he doesn't need anything. He went to jail because he does not want to die without showing the light of the freedom to his people. He does not want to die without showing you and me how we exercise our freedom. He does not want to die before me and you know what freedom is and how we have to stand for it. He want to see us to stand for our freedom knowing that our right is not given by any one or limited by any person or government. If you have animal in your house the animal freedom is limited by you and his capability. Lions right can be limited if they are in gated container. Although you try to control Lions freedom by having them in compounded environment they are always try to find a way to claim their independency. And you always control dogs’ freedom because they give their freedom for their feeder and they will remain loyal because their stomach is more important for them than their freedom. Although there are some weak people who are acting like those dogs who gave up their equal right and serve their suppressor because they see them as their life giver since they provide them food and shelter. Over all the majority of our people are peace lover. They gave enough time for EPRDF/TPLF/MELESE to be a civilized government. But EPRDF/TPLF/MELESE confirmed to Ethiopian people they do not have freedom themselves. The showed to Ethiopian people they still trust their gun more than democracy. We know how everything started. We fought Derg in the name of freedom. I don't how much you know about the current government played a game on Tigrian mother and father and elderly. Their children blood is still crying from the mass grave and field cemetery. Do you know the current government is equally responsible with Derg for Tigrian children who were killed during the struggle? Even more because there are a few KNOWN mass grave tortured, killed and buried by EPRDF/TPLF/MELESE. And they are doing it around the country currently and what is good about celebrating millennium. Do you want our people to have a hope to live or their life and their good will should continue to be controlled by dictator and their destiny directed by someone who does not have a good intention for them. Learn from South Africa history, they never celebrated until the apartheid system broken up and the people exercise their freedom and voted for their own government. Ethiopian people voted and selected their government. They exercise their freedom and the government through their leaders in the prison and killed innocent people who stand for their freedom and exercise their right. Currently they are under surveillance. Please think what millenniums do for those people who are under siege. You need to wake up and see what the professor is teaching you. If you are educated person don’t be a shuttle diplomat learn first what your right is and what you want to accomplish in the name of freedom. Don't do anything to get attention or to gain praise from your owner. When you don't exercise your freedom you serve your owner with their mind you don't exercise your God given freedom which helps you to separate the truth from the false personality. That is what THE SHUTTLE DEPLOMAT DID. They went to see the opposition leaders in the prison and to get the signature of the freedom leaders, who stood for the freedom of the people and who exercise their God given freedom, to satisfy EPRDF/TPLF/MELES not to serve the purpose of shimagle or to bring a true reconciliation. Even the parliament of course it is a sample but not seen or debated on the letter at least for show off but the letter directly carried out by the SHUTTLE DEPLOMAT after Melese drafted. Abel please gives me one good reason why Ethiopian people have to celebrate this millennium while we have this entire crisis. You probably need to find a place to go for your vacation but Ethiopian people need a rule and order first to have a very good reason for them to celebrate. If you go you probably feel secure because Agazi force will be their but what you need to know is those forces are not protecting you they are controlling you right and taking away your freedom. Therefore, you need to pass the word and share about freedom and rule of law and order. Without freedom celebration is only temporarily as the day light goes away and as the night will take over our people misery will pass from one century to another century. Celebrating just a change of century unless we overcome our problem it does not bring any change for our people. Abel in stead of wasting your money invest your money for your people freedom.

Unknown said...



TPLF WOYANE are group of people who by chance have found a way to be in the position of making decision in the name of Ethiopia. They are confussed group of people, some of the people have serious bi-polar disorder illness. Meles and his closest allies in central TPLF inner circle read a book for a week and they try to translate the book on the ground in Ethiopia. People who do such thing are called "ILL." WOYANE ORGANIZATION LEADERS ARE ALL ILL! They are out of reality. A few years prior TPLF coming to power Meles read a translated book written by a Russian citizen who is idealist and the book was about the future of the Albanian nation desire. Meles was over taken by the book he recommended it to his gangs. Almost all of them felt it was the book they were looking for their struggle. Some of the people in TPLF Central Committee thought it was crazy, you know what happen to theose people who thout the book was crazy? they were removed from the "crazy" club of the TPLF central committee inner circle.

Some of the people were out-right loonies, even they out crazed Meles himself. So he ordered internal investigation on them. In the process of the investigation, Mengistu left for Zimbabwe. So, the investigations were dropped out. The people who were under investigation include Abay Tshaye, Aregash Tewelde, Seyum Mesfin and Gebru Asrat. Now the three people mentioned control key spots in the TPLF regime ruining mother Ethiopia. The people who were thought out to be practical include Seye Abraha (Who would have thought seye was practical?) Meles himself, Sebhat Nega and others who had no objection to translating the Albanian Comminism theory on Tigrai. Do you all know that up until the beginning of 1988 TPLF's main objection was to liberate Tigrai. Between 1988 and 1991 they changed their mission to occupying Ethiopia. So they all came to power by a set of circumstances which happen to coincide, not by intention.

The funny thing is those people who have serious bi-polar illnesses are stil in power making decisions. No wonder when they ordered to kill the innocent protesters on the streets. No one ever question their health condition. So Ethiopia is being taken advantage off by REAL-CRAZY people. Now that their crazzyness is embraced by many, the term crazyness is looked at the way to bring change. Some of the soldires say, "if we weren't led by crazy ideas we wouldn't have Ethiopia in our hand." Surprisingly, America continue to support crazy group of people guiding Ethiopia into unextricable real mess. Onese an English diplomat told, when asked why Britain supports TPLF solidify its grip on Ethiopians. She said, "its not our aim to bring better leadership in Ethiopia, its the choice of the people, they chose this regime over the previous regime, the Ethiopian people must think its a better regime for them. So we support it."

Eritus said...

The prisoner dillema game theory usually works. Not in this case, however. Not good for Meles

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